Showing posts with label Lil Rockerfeller. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lil Rockerfeller. Show all posts

Monday, 14 March 2016

Sunny, freezing, PU and form - Plumpton and Cheltenham contrasts

Incredibly sunny at Plumpton today, so much so that I was forced to don my sunglasses underneath my trilby for the full on Rich Ricci look. Incidentally it was only yesterday that I finally confirmed for sure that Mr Ricci is actually balder than me - and he's 2 years younger! He might be £2billion richer, own the favourites for the Champion Hurdle, Supreme Novice, the Arkle and the Gold Cup, but I have (admittedly only just) more follicles. Take that #fatcatinahat.
The sun was deceptive though. I finally understand what the BBC's Tomasz Schafernaker is on about when he tells us about the 'chill factor'. The wind was blowing direct from Iceland, and rather like the small town in Trapped that has a murder rate higher than Midsomer, it was bloody freezing.
None of this put off the crowds. The gate for Plumpton's 'Irish Raceday' (it's quite near St.Patrick's Day) was swelled by many of us who had taken the week off for Cheltenham - albeit the coach from Brighton Station was still only full of the 5 regulars (the Tote lady, 'Any Luck' man, an old chap who wears blue desert boots, a very frail grey lady for whom racing is her reason to live and me).
The contrast between the horses on show at Plumpton and those engaged for the Festival could not have been greater, but it was still fun for all that. All you needed to do was ignore the incessant wittering of Colin Brown over the PA, close out the sound of the 'diddlee dee' band especially engaged for 3 day's from St Patrick's Eve Day, and concentrate on the form.
Fine in theory, but problematic when most of the runners had more letters against their name than numbers. Mind you it did not stop one man who managed to back Rocknrobin, the 25/1 winner of the second race.
"Easy that mate. I just looked at the form 00PU. Had to win again if he's Pissed Up last time."
Fortunately my favourite blacksmith, Paul Henderson, gave me my ammunition for the festival with his Talk of the South winning the 4th very easily. Not only can he shoe the horses, he can train them as well.
So for my faithful follower this is where my hard earned will be going as part of the greatest 4 days sport anywhere in the world-
  • Altior  for the Supreme Novice
  • Lil Rockefeller in the Champion Hurdle (already mentioned) with a saver on Peace and Co. Oh and lay Annie Power - 2/1 about Willie Mullins third choice is absurd
  • John's Spirit in whatever handicap he runs
  • Cole Harden in the World Hurdle
  • Don Cossack for the Gold Cup
  • And I think Victoria Pendleton will fall off - but don't bet on any of the markets the bookies offer on it.

As for 'Any Luck Man' he tells me he backed My Tent or Yours for the Champion Hurdle at 20/1. He's now best priced 13/2 and has been unlucky for the last 2 years. Sadly for ALM the bookies love 'unlucky' horses.


And this is dear old Goring Two who after 2 PU's came an honourable 3rd today.

Thursday, 10 March 2016

Sexist betting strategy backfires at Lingfield

Poor old Fontwell was off again yesterday, taking the abandonment rate to 75% since I bought my season ticket. Still the Fontwell folk sent me a nice letter apologising, enclosing a couple of £5 drink/food vouchers and a complimentary ticket for a friend to the - sadly abandoned - next meeting.
The rainfall overnight and continuing into the morning meant the clerk of the course had little choice, and fair play to him for making the decision early. This gave the chance to divert to Lingfield, where it was even wetter but the all-weather once again saved the day for those of us in need of our racing fix.
The quality of the horses was fairly humdrum, but some of the top jockeys were due to ride, including the underrated champion jockey for 2015, Sylvestre de Sousa. Pele and Ayrton Senna might have been more well-known, but de Sousa is now my favourite Brazilian sportsman.
Unfortunately whilst he made it back from Rio to the UK, he and quite a few of the other jockeys had not bargained for the M25 traffic. Roadworks and an accident in the contra flow meant they were late for the first race, causing confusing last minute jockey changes and some horses to be withdrawn altogether.
Ed Quigley, 'Longshot' in the Racing Post, had tipped up Palace Moon in the first. He (the horse, not the tipster) is 11 years old (veteran plus stage) and had not won for 3 years. Delving a long way back into his form it was just about possible to see where Ed was coming from so I invested a small amount to place on the Tote. Palace Moon duly won at 20/1, paying a win dividend of £28.60. The place dividend felt like a loss in the circumstances, especially as the smiling Tote lady said "Well done but bet you wish you'd had it to win" as she handed over my £62 (as opposed to £286). I grinned grimaced and agreed nicely.
The next race was a claimer, where the weight the horse carries is determined by how much the owner/trainer is prepared to allow the horse to be bought for. Obviously the theory is that no owner will put his horse in at a price which undervalues him. There is though an unwritten rule which considers it slightly not the done thing to claim another trainer's horse (especially an older one to whom connections might have grown attached). Personally I think this is a load of nonsense, and was therefore pleased to see old Majestic Myles claimed for £7k by a Mr L.A. Carter.
Silvestre de Sousa made it in time for the 4th race, but the rushing cannot have helped as he rode the 13/8 favourite trained by Mark 'Always Trying' Johnston into only 3rd place.
Still he must have been ready for the fascinating 5 furlong sprint which followed. There were just 4 horses but on form they seemed very closely matched. The betting bore this out with all of them at one time priced between 5/2 and 7/2. My logic suggested that jockeyship could be the crucial factor. There was the champion jockey up against Adam Kirby (a specialist round the Lingfield bends) and two young women jockeys, Josephine Gordon and Hollie Doyle. That whittled it down by two, with me just favouring Furiant ridden by de Sousa over Illegally Blonde and the course expert Kirby.
I got that bit right, only to see Hollie Doyle on Aguerooo,
come with a perfectly timed run to win going away. The starting prices, 6/4 favourite for Furiant against 15/8 for Aguerooo, suggested I was not the only one who had been undone by a borderline sexist approach to punting.
In the winner's enclosure Hollie Doyle was tiny compared to the horse, but the owners and the trainer, Richard Hannon, obviously had faith in her. She rode an excellent race and I will not be underestimating her again.
My nap of the day, Hot Stuff, came second again, in the (un)lucky last. I will be going in again next time he runs as he keeps finding one too good, but I fear he might be my latest cliff* horse.
Obviously all racing at the moment is dominated by endless debate about next week's Cheltenham festival. The declarations for the Champion Hurdle came out during the meeting and I just had to note that Lil Rockerfeller - winning of the National Spirit at Fontwell last month- had been supplemented. The owners, including bookie Andy Smith, had paid £20k to supplement him, and will only cover their costs if their horse comes in the first 4. I have availed myself at 40/1 in the hope that Lil will emulate Beech Road.
Oh and Expect Nothing is running in A3 grade tonight at Hove. Hattie**, as she is known in the kennel, is running well at the moment but another win will be a surprise ...... but you never know. Owning a greyhound, there really is nothing better.

*As in 'follow off a'
**Named after the former Deputy Leader of Labour Party obviously 


Sunday, 28 February 2016

Following record winnings at Fontwell will Rockerfeller emulate Beech Road?

Fontwell for their biggest meeting of the year, and the richest race ever run at the unique Sussex track. There was a good turnout on a cold day for a meeting which both 'family Sunday funsters' and racing aficionados could enjoy.
The winner's prize of £35k (yes £35k at lowly Fontwell) had attracted a decent quality field for the National Spirit Hurdle. The runners included Grumeti, winner of last season's Cesarewitch at Newmarket. It is wonderful to see a horse good enough to win the first half of the famous autumn double at the home of flat racing, come to humble Fontwell to compete in a hurdle race.
There was even a parade before the race.
I know the jockeys and trainers hate these but for the crowd in the grandstand it is great.
As it was poor old Grumeti was burdened by the Cox dollars, causing him no doubt to fade out disappointingly on the final circuit. That is not to take anything away from the winner, a rapidly improving handicapper Lil Rockerfeller, trained by the up and coming (but still underrated) Neil King. He won by a wide margin and will not be competing in handicaps for a while now.
I have quickly checked the Champion Hurdle entries and see that Lil Rockefeller is not entered so he will not be able to emulate the famous previous winner of the National Spirit, Beech Road, by going onto to lift the hurdle crown. That is unless the owners stump up £20k to supplement him. I guess they will not but they have a possible contender for next year on their hands.
Obviously all this money swilling around at Fontwell around has had wider impact - at least that's the only explanation I can think of for my sorrow drowning Guinness costing £5 a pint. Sad to record it was even poured all in one go.
I hung on to the end for the bumper just to see how the Di Grissell runner did, following the Brightling trainer's triumph at long odds in the flat race at Plumpton 13 days previously. My interest had been further piqued because the horse concerned, Nelson's Victory, has a twitter account which appeared on my timeline. Sadly it was no Battle of Trafalgar. Poor old Nelson's Victory Defeat was tailed off and will need to improve a great deal to warrant the erection of a column in his name. Still may be the runaway winner, King Uther, can emulate Cue Card and go on to win the Cheltenham bumper after a triumph at Fontwell?
29 February tomorrow - and a once every four years chance of an extra day's racing. Plumpton here I come.