After much research I'm still not sure if backing a loser is worse than not backing a winner

Being fortunate enough to have had a couple of holidays lately has given me some time to do some important research. No not a detailed study of the economic benefits of remaining or leaving the EU, but something far more important; how to be successful at gambling.
I have read two highly entertaining books on how small groups of ultra intelligent math students have managed to make $millions by a combination of card counting and card spotting on blackjack in casinos. This confirmed to me that it is impossible for 99.99% of casino players to do anything but lose. Unless you are a mathematical genius, and somewhat socially dysfunctional with it, forget casinos as a source of profit.
In betting 'inside' information can help. If you have connections with a stable then you may hear when a horse is 'fit and ready' and place a bet accordingly. Close links to a lower, or non-league, football club might lead you to hear that the star player is ill/hungover/fed up and therefore the odds on the opponents for the next match are a touch generous.
Unfortunately most of us are not best mates with a trainer, and do not have a direct line to the treatment table at Kettering Town*.
You could therefore try a tipster.The newspaper ones all have their moments but if you follow their tips blind, you will make a loss. Partly this again is a result of inside, or at least early, information. Unless you get the tip before everyone else any chance of getting a decent price is long gone. Rob Wright (The Times) and Tom Segal (Pricewise of the Racing Post) clearly know their stuff, and indeed often tip up the same horses. The trouble for us 'civilians' is that the bookies then cut the prices of the horses they tip, taking away any of the value in utilising their expertise.
The only way to get the inside track from a tipster is to pay for it. There are many of these 'experts' offering such services for a fee, and again some do seem to report year on year profits. I still though remain dubious. Ultimately if the tipster is so good you have to ask why they do not simply back the horses themselves and take the profits direct, rather than sharing it with others for a fee? Admittedly my take on tipping services is somewhat jaundiced, having never got over witnessing one well-known tipster in a Hove bookies answering a call from a client. The tipster walked over to the runners displayed on the wall and picked a horse at random, declaring this nag the nap of the day.
My conclusion after much sunny reflection is that the only way to get an edge is the Gary Player route; "it's funny, the more I practice the luckier I get." For me it involves watching races and spotting horses which I think will run well next time.
I use horse tracking software to highlight the horse and should then receive notification overnight of when the horse is due to run again. Since February I have received 10 such notifications. I backed 8 of them. Of these 7 have lost, and one returned a small (each way) profit having come third. The two I did not back were Butney Island (completely missed the notification - won at 28/1 at Newton Abbott)  and Chelsea's Boy (away abroad and no Internet - won at 8/1 at Goodwood last Friday).
Tonight at Brighton Quickaswecan runs at an advertised 16/1 and has been highlighted by my tracker. Looking at the form I am not convinced. The dilemma is that I'm not sure whether backing him and losing will be worse than not doing so and reading tomorrow that he won.

*A club chosen totally randomly because I once saw them play on a romantic weekend away (well it was for me) in the West Midlands 

Horse tracking software reminds me that there is only one thing worse than backing a loser

Fontwell Park racecourse's "Family Fun Day" last Sunday attracted a crowd of almost 10,000. Considerably more than went to the third day of the second test match between England and Sri Lanka at Chester-le-Street.
Obviously the weather helped. It was a glorious late spring day in West Sussex, whereas in Durham it was grey, overcast and wintry (i.e. normal for the north east in May).
Even allowing for the 'hilarious' folk who go to the test dressed as monks, Star Wars characters, Wizard of Oz lookalikes and in various other modes of fancy dress, it is fair to conclude that most of the people in the crowd are actually cricket fans and have at least a passing interest in the sport.
Family fun days at the races are a different thing. The families seem to be attracted by the face painting, the fairground rides, the ice cream and the bars; the racing is just incidental.
Fair enough I suppose, if it gets the youngsters and the drunks interested in our great sport maybe it is worth it, but - as the Englishwoman who went to Syria to fight for ISIS told us on her return to these shores - it is just "not really my cup of tea". 
There are only so many times you can simply shrug as you fail to get your bet on because the bookie is having to patiently explain to the woman in front of you in the queue (sorry my feminist friends, it is nearly always a woman) that £1 each way costs £2 rather than a £1, and it probably is not a good idea to have an each way bet on the 5/4 favourite in any case.
Judging by the reports from my pals at Wednesday's Fontwell meeting it was a good thing I gave the Sunday fixture a swerve. The racing was ok but Fontwell itself could not cope with the large crowd. I'm told it was impossible to get a drink, difficult to have a bet and the sun was so strong that my head would have got burnt.
Far better to go to a lower key midweek meeting, in greyish weather, not get your face painted and actually watch the racing.
The first race on Wednesday reminded me of a very painful experience. The reader of this blog will be aware that I use 'tracker' software to alert me via email of a horse I have noted in a previous race and might want to back in its future races. I am quite selective (generally) how I use it, and I only 'track' horses that I think might improve significantly in their future races. I have done alright using it, but probably only just broke even from the bets I have made as a result. This could have been so different. One of my 'spots' was a horse called Butney Island who I had noticed ran rather well at Plumpton in the winter, having been dropped out and 'tenderly' ridden. The comment I had made when highlighting him was along the lines of 'ran far better than its finishing position suggested, back in its next 3 races if going is firmer.'
In May I duly got an email alerting me to the fact that Butney Island was due to run at Newton Abbot the following day. Unfortunately I was supposed to be enjoying some Spanish sun in Majorca. I was actually in Majorca but it was not sunny, and the wifi in the hotel would not let me access any of my bookmaker accounts. "Oh well", I thought, "there does not seem to me much confidence from connections, it probably will not matter."
Back in the UK two days later I checked the results to discover that Butney Island had won at 28/1. The trainer had explained the improvement to the stewards as "he liked the firmer going."
After that I could not bring myself to back Butney Island again, which probably was good thing, as he finished a very tired 3rd (heh, heh - but no I am not bitter).
It was good to see a tanned and healthy, if not exactly a jockey's weight, Paul Nicholls at Fontwell. After his epic battle with Willie Mullins for the trainer's championship last year, Nicholls is clearly determined to do everything to retain his crown - including entering decentish horses at Fontwell in June. Keep an eye on all his horses through the summer, as I suspect he is on a mission.
He would have had a double if it were not for the fact that even more remarkably Fontwell in June had attracted a mare who had come 4th to the great Vroom Vroom Mag at this year's Cheltenham Festival. Neil Mulholland (a trainer to watch) had clearly sorted out Pass The Times' jumping problems, and she was an impressive winner of the improbably named Shoreham Port Novices' Steeplechase.
Highlight of the day for me though - and not just because I had backed him - was Andrew Thornton's 993'rd career winner. Lensio*, as he is known, is clearly determined to keep riding until he achieves 1,000 successes. He is old for a jump jockey but remains an excellent 'horseman'. That term can almost be an insult in racing circles. It hints that a jockey is not the most stylish or strongest. Thornton does perhaps, no just does, ride with his legs further down the sides of the horse than his younger colleagues. The result of that though is he falls off less often. In this race Kentford Heiress travelled really well throughout, something horses tend to do under Lensio, and managed to hang on in the tightest of finishes to win by a nose, after running for over 3 miles.
I am off on holiday again next week to Montenegro (seemed a good idea at the time). It means I will miss Fontwell's final meeting before the summer break, and I suspect it may be even harder to get a bet on in a former Yugoslav republic than in Spain when my horse tracker software alerts me to the next long priced winner. Not backing a winner is so much worse.

NB It's The Derby and Oaks before I go. My bets - Minding for the Oaks. Boring I know but I'll be backing her at any price above evens. The Derby though is a different matter. My selection is the Aidan O'Brien 3rd, 4th, or maybe even 5th string, Port Douglas. Each way at 20/1 with Corals.

*He can't see all that well and is one of the few jockeys who wears contact lenses

No socks to win - and Ryan doubles up

Brighton on Friday for Best Dressed Gentleman's Day. I decided not to enter the actual competition as I wanted to give all the other male racegoers a chance.

For future reference though, my suggestion is that if you to want to win it you are best to include at least two of the following-

• a moustache that twirls - or at least can be waxed,
• tweeds,
• red trousers,
• a bright blue suit cut very tight
• no socks (and trousers short enough for the judges to see you have no socks),
• and/or slip on shoes with tassels*.

My reason for going though was not this frippery but to see Brighton's greatest ever sportsman, Ryan Moore (sorry Steve), ride his home track for the first times in two years. Ryan had 4 rides, and managed a double. 

Remarkably the reigning champion jockey, Sylvester de Sousa, also turned up and bagged a pair as well.
Charlie Miller, Brighton's loudest bookie, gave his usual sound tipping advice in the paddock. It was good to see Charlie looking so well after his 'massive' (obviously Chas could not have had a small one) heart attack last year.
The only disappointment was to find that George Baker (the horse), trained by George Baker (the trainer), owned by George Baker and partners (the owners) and running in the 6th race, was not ridden by George Baker. Sadly George Baker (the jockey) was otherwise engaged. If not ,maybe George Baker (the horse) would have done better than 4th. 

*I'm advised they are called loafers.

Her Majesty's Coup Failed (sadly)

Yes it was pretty low grade low grade stuff but there were at least lots of runners at Lingfield today. There was even a sprint handicap which paid e/w terms the first 4 home.
For me though the highlight was an attempt by Her Majesty the Queen to do something I have always dreamed of - stage a betting coup.
Okay I admit I did not see her racing manager - Lord Carnarvon last time I checked - going down the line in the betting jungle having lumps on, but I can't help thinking that a few Palace pounds were somehow invested in the last.
The Queen had two runners at Leafy today. The first was Bonhomie in the 2.50. Trained by Michael Bell, she (the filly, not HM) seemed to me to have a reasonable chance. Bonhemie had run creditably in her 3 maidens, and was weighted about right for her handicap debut. She was favourite in the morning but there was little money in the ring for her, and she duly ran okay, finishing a respectable 3rd, without ever looking like winning. As this pic shows HM was not in the winner's enclosure to collect the place money, which suggests she knew.

It was though wholly different for the 5.35. Trainer Roger Charlton had charted an altogther different course for Final Choice. He (First Choice) had run 3 times as a 2 year old and basically been .... well .... useless. Over the winter however poor old first First Choice had been gelded; something which apparently it is suggested makes male horses concentrate on the task in hand (so to speak).
Word round the track was that Mr Charlton was doing a Sir Mark (as in Prescott) i.e. running a horse 3 times over an inadequate distance in order to obtain a (lowish) handicap mark before then entering the horse in a much more suitable longer race. My golfing friends tell me this is the equivalent of a 'bandit.' The rules have been tightened to stop this but not entirely successfully. As Ron Wood in the Racing Post suggested "Roger Charlton's runner didn't show much last year ...... but it will be a surprise if he does not improve up in trip."
The money certainly came. Even allowing for the tips in the trade papers Final Choice opened 11/2 on course, but was 7/2 (3/1) in places by the off. Some serious investments.
Sadly the cash stayed in the bookies' satchels, rather than heading back up the M23 to Windsor Castle. Final Choice proved to be no better over a middle distance than he had been over shorter trips. Even the unkindest cut of all had not persuaded him to win.
Still at least his connections gave it a go. God Save the Queen.

Stewards' Enquiry, Stewards' Enquiry - it's suddenly become more interesting

There is something about the bell sounding, the slight delay, and then the public address monotone "Stewards' Enquiry, Stewards' Enquiry, Please retain all betting slips until the result is announced" that still, after all these years, excites me.
It may even be getting better because it appears that the stewards are suddenly more willing to act. For some while in UK racing it was almost impossible to get a result overturned. The offending jockey would get a holiday ban, but no matter how much interference had been caused the first past the post would generally keep the race.
At last though I detect a change. On my last jaunt to Lingfield there was one occurrence that gave me an inkling that the central guidance may have been revised. 
In the 15.40 on Thursday 19 May I was just an interested observer. It was a 'no bet' race for me as I could not separate the first two in the betting, but I did hope that Ayr of Elegance would win because I have always had a soft spot for his trainer, Philip Hide. I thought he was an underrated jockey, and I am hearing good reports about how hard he works in his new role as one of the less well known trainers in this part of the world.
I watched the finish from a spot level with the line and was convinced that Ayr of Elegance had won. Then I watched the replay twice more and was still convinced Ayr of Elegance had passed the post first. But when the the judge announced the result, it was market rival Onorina who was deemed to have finished first. 
30 seconds later the klaxon sounded. It was a 'stewards'. Name drop alert I watched my 3rd, 4th and 5th replay with Tony Ennis (Enzo to us mates), the commentator, who admitted that he had also thought Ayr of Elegance had got up. Mr Ennis also confidently declared that the result would be overturned. 'No way' I suggested. Any interference was 50/50 to me, and - err hmm Mr Ennis you should know this - the English stewards are far more robust than their weedy French and American counterparts. Race riding is part of the game. Man up.
Well of course it turned out I got both the photo and the stewards' wrong. Fair play to Enzo, Ayr of Elegance was awarded the race. Conduct your own enquiry by looking at the replay here.
And it appears this was not an isolated incident for the following day at Goodwood a race was awarded to the third the past the post. In fairness to the stipendiary steward he made a decent effort at explaining why, although the great Steve Mellish was not entirely convinced.
Again play at being a steward for a day here.
Is a pattern developing? Yes I think there maybe. I do hope there is a televised enquiry at Royal Ascot next month. It could be really interesting (for us stewards' enquiry junkies anyway).

-------------------------

Gene tests no way. After his defeat in the Irish 2000 Guineas I still think Galileo Gold would have a very good chance of winning the Derby if entered. Come on Hugo Palmer give it a go.

Costly day's racing at increasingly wonderful Brighton saved by Lewis Dunk

My - purely platonic obviously - love affair with Brighton racecourse just grows and grows. It used to be a dump, and it still has to struggle with vandalism, its location in a 'liberal' city which is not exactly enthusiastic about horse racing, logistical difficulties in watering, buildings inspired by the worst period of local council design, and two roads (Wilson Avenue and Manor Hill) crossing the track.

Despite all this, and mainly owing to the determined efforts of the current management, it offers a friendly welcome that many of the grade 1 and 2 tracks lack, and its quirkiness even suits some decent horses from high profile stables.
After a week away in Magaluf, where the weather was a continuation of this English winter, I finally got a chance to go racing again yesterday (Monday) at the great Ian Carnaby's favourite racing location.
Remarkably the going report had the word 'firm'. Indeed after 6 hours sun and wind, the going was changed after the second race from 'good - good to firm in places' to 'good to firm' for the whole course.
Trainers represented at Monday's meeting included Sir Mark Prescott (bt), Richard Hannon, William Haggas, Roger Charlton and Brian Meehan. The 4th race was won cosily by Paling, owned by one Prince Khalid Abdullah. I was shocked to see that the Prince did not turn up in person to receive his prestigious trophy. Instead the printed bit of of paper with the words 'winner' on it was collected by trainer Roger Charlton's 18 year son, who I am sure will pass said piece of paper to his Highness.
Mick Channon also had a runner, and I noticed Mick's son posing for photographs with a bunch of 'lads' which included an equally famous footballer, Chris Waddle. You would have been forgiven for missing Chris. His mullet is gone but unlike Mick he has not gone bald. Instead he now has a slicked back brylcream style haircut reminiscent of that sported by goalies in the 1920's and '30's. Mr Waddle was enjoying himself with the Winner Group, which seemed to involve drinking pints of some kind deep purple liquid (nope, me neither).
Other highlights for me included visiting the winner's enclosure after the first race. The man next to me was very animated as the trainer Richard Spencer threw water over the second, Sir Theodore, who had just failed to overhaul the winner Al Sailiyah, in a close finish.
The victor's jockey, Pat Dobbs, has vast experience, while Sir Theodore was ridden by the appropriately named apprentice, Louis Steward (who had a 3lb weight allowance because of his inexperience).
Mr Animated was not impressed.
"Throw the f***ing water over the jockey. Not f***king strong enuff."
Me,
"Did you back the second?"
Mr Animated,
"Err well yeh."
The second race gave me the chance to test a well known racing theory. There were 3 runners, so the potential was there for 'the outsider of 3' to come off. It worked for me once in a race at Plumpton on an Easter bank holiday, but it is best to draw a veil over that as it turned out it was probably fixed. On all known form the favourite - Mister Sunshine - had to win. I had a soft spot for him in any case as he is trained by Clive Cox, who for obvious reasons I feel a certain affinity towards. My paddock inspection did though suggest he was vulnerable. Mister Sunshine was bucking like a bronco, and the syndicate who owned the third favourite, Secret Ballerina, were all there and smiling. I watched one of them have a lumpyish bet on their filly, and followed in. Secret Ballerina shortened from16's into 10/1, while the jolly drifted from 1/2 to 4/6.
I have to admit that I was quietly confident as Secret Ballerina led to the cutaway 2 furlongs out. Mister Sunshine had been pulling all the way, wanting to run far faster than jockey Adam Kirby considered wise. Surely he was using too much energy?
Well no. Secret Ballerina found nothing off the bridle, trailing in a distant last, whilst Mister Sunshine continued to pull Adam Kirby's arms out of their sockets whilst winning by an easy 5 lengths. I think he might win again!
All in all though a lovely sunny day, albeit punting wise with 4 losing bets a bit hard on the bank balance. I headed back into town to check the odds on the football in Paddy Power's. Sadly I feared (correctly) that Brighton's play-off campaign was doomed. Quick check on the first goalscorer odds though. Surprised to see Solly March (lame) quoted at 10/1 and Adam Chickson (plays for another team) 40/1. My final £40 went on Lewis Dunk, who looked to me to be overpriced. 
Happy days.

Doppelganger spotting in Magaluf

It is probably only me that does this so do bear with me. On a not exactly top of the range break to Majorca this week the weather has been more Bognor than Magaluf. Indeed I gather the temperature in Sussex has exceeded that in the Balearics by at least 5 degrees. With opportunities for sun bathing limited, it has been a case of getting maximum value from the all-inclusive buffet and bar, enduring the (illegally?) streamed coverage of the final championship games of the season alongside some fearsomely tattooed Middlesborough supporters, and giving celebrity names to my fellow guests.
Doppelgänger wise I have so far spotted-

• Jeremy Corbyn going big time for the rather limited vegetarian section in the dining hall, whilst bringing in his own almond milk to put on his corn flakes
• Rod Stewart, complete (remarkably) with age-appropriate wife and no young children
• Mary Berry putting chocolate sauce on a greasy donut
• Ray Winstone, wheezing somewhat and carrying a few additional pounds
• Someone who just had to be the dad of a recently retired local MP accompanied by the mother of the Barnacle (Oracle?) from Benidorm 
• Phil Tufnell smoking an 'oily' while sheltering from the rain (I may have got him mixed up with Jeremy Corbyn)

Hope to collect a few more over the next two days.

Update-

• Just spotted Mike Gatting in fetching green trunks struggling to get on a sunbed. That goatee still does not look right for the President of the MCC.