Being fortunate enough to have had a couple of holidays lately has given me some time to do some important research. No not a detailed study of the economic benefits of remaining or leaving the EU, but something far more important; how to be successful at gambling.
I have read two highly entertaining books on how small groups of ultra intelligent math students have managed to make $millions by a combination of card counting and card spotting on blackjack in casinos. This confirmed to me that it is impossible for 99.99% of casino players to do anything but lose. Unless you are a mathematical genius, and somewhat socially dysfunctional with it, forget casinos as a source of profit.
In betting 'inside' information can help. If you have connections with a stable then you may hear when a horse is 'fit and ready' and place a bet accordingly. Close links to a lower, or non-league, football club might lead you to hear that the star player is ill/hungover/fed up and therefore the odds on the opponents for the next match are a touch generous.
Unfortunately most of us are not best mates with a trainer, and do not have a direct line to the treatment table at Kettering Town*.
You could therefore try a tipster.The newspaper ones all have their moments but if you follow their tips blind, you will make a loss. Partly this again is a result of inside, or at least early, information. Unless you get the tip before everyone else any chance of getting a decent price is long gone. Rob Wright (The Times) and Tom Segal (Pricewise of the Racing Post) clearly know their stuff, and indeed often tip up the same horses. The trouble for us 'civilians' is that the bookies then cut the prices of the horses they tip, taking away any of the value in utilising their expertise.
The only way to get the inside track from a tipster is to pay for it. There are many of these 'experts' offering such services for a fee, and again some do seem to report year on year profits. I still though remain dubious. Ultimately if the tipster is so good you have to ask why they do not simply back the horses themselves and take the profits direct, rather than sharing it with others for a fee? Admittedly my take on tipping services is somewhat jaundiced, having never got over witnessing one well-known tipster in a Hove bookies answering a call from a client. The tipster walked over to the runners displayed on the wall and picked a horse at random, declaring this nag the nap of the day.
My conclusion after much sunny reflection is that the only way to get an edge is the Gary Player route; "it's funny, the more I practice the luckier I get." For me it involves watching races and spotting horses which I think will run well next time.
I use horse tracking software to highlight the horse and should then receive notification overnight of when the horse is due to run again. Since February I have received 10 such notifications. I backed 8 of them. Of these 7 have lost, and one returned a small (each way) profit having come third. The two I did not back were Butney Island (completely missed the notification - won at 28/1 at Newton Abbott) and Chelsea's Boy (away abroad and no Internet - won at 8/1 at Goodwood last Friday).
Tonight at Brighton Quickaswecan runs at an advertised 16/1 and has been highlighted by my tracker. Looking at the form I am not convinced. The dilemma is that I'm not sure whether backing him and losing will be worse than not doing so and reading tomorrow that he won.
*A club chosen totally randomly because I once saw them play on a romantic weekend away (well it was for me) in the West Midlands
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