It's distracting to engage in next Conservative leader speculation but.......

I have been enjoying myself lately engaging in a bit of punditry for the BBC and the excellent, and unfairly underrated, LatestTV. Latest get me on to spout off about politics, whereas the BBC tend to ask me to comment on policing (until today).
Commentating on events is obviously not as difficult as actually doing things - but it can be enormous fun.
This morning I went to the Charles Dickens pub in Worthing to watch the PM's speech in company with Louise Murphy and Carson Albury (councillors in Adur and Worthing). The idea was that we would give our initial responses, all recorded by the new (and rather talented) BBC Sussex political reporter Ben Weizs.

Ben set up his recorder and asked us to speak. For the first half hour I was on top form, with endless insightful observations and humorous asides to match Paul Merton. Ben then announced that the tape recorder had not been working after which rather I dried up!
I gather that something was cobbled together in the end and broadcast on the Drivetime show on Radio Sussex, and both Louise and Carson were very impressive.
There are already numerous online reports on David Cameron's speech across the internet so I will keep my comments on that short. I thought it was good, and for me a welcome throwback to the days of his early leadership with its emphasis on compassionate Conservatism and, dare I say, the Big Society. 
He also made it clear once and for all, removing even the smallest smidgen of doubt, that he will not stand again. The Party line, for all sorts of sensible reasons, is that this should not result in speculation as to who will succeed him. As a loyal Party member I do not intend to engage in such speculation but just to be helpful I thought it might be interesting to have a quiet peek at the next Conservative leader odds-
George Osborne 13/8
Boris Johnson 9/2
Theresa May 9/1
Sajid Javid 10/1
22/1 bar
As ever my guess is that these odds are about right. Cameron referred to Osborne as the 'Iron Chancellor' in his speech, which was as near to an endorsement as you can get. Boris delivered a good speech this week but his flirting with EU exit and controls on immigration look just what they are - positioning to the base by half heartedly adopting positions that he does not really believe in.
Theresa May has been resilient beyond belief in her job as Home Secretary, but many Tory activists still find it hard to forgive her for her 'nasty party' comments. The speech she made this week suggests she is actually unaware just how much the Conservative Party has changed since she made that observation.
Sajid has a fantastic back story (and a brother who is a Chief Superintendent, which for obvious reasons appeals to me) but is still a little unsure when put on the spot in interviews - and I cannot see him standing against George.
When pressed by Tim Ridgway on The Vote this week I suggested that Osborne is the most likely next Conservative leader. Nothing at conference this week has suggested otherwise.
But, and it's a big but, history suggests the front runner rarely wins. So how about a couple of outsiders who could come through if the favourite stumbles?
For me there are 2-
1. Ruth Davidson. The grass roots love her, the media loves her, and she is simply brilliant. There is every chance she can lead the Scottish Conservatives into second place at next year's Holyrood elections. Were she in the Commons she would be second favourite.
2. Robert Halfon. The MP for Harlow is my political hero. He is the white van man Conservative, a terrific campaigner and the ultimate de-toxifer of the Tory brand.
HalfonforPM - you read it here first.