Thursday 10 March 2016

Sexist betting strategy backfires at Lingfield

Poor old Fontwell was off again yesterday, taking the abandonment rate to 75% since I bought my season ticket. Still the Fontwell folk sent me a nice letter apologising, enclosing a couple of £5 drink/food vouchers and a complimentary ticket for a friend to the - sadly abandoned - next meeting.
The rainfall overnight and continuing into the morning meant the clerk of the course had little choice, and fair play to him for making the decision early. This gave the chance to divert to Lingfield, where it was even wetter but the all-weather once again saved the day for those of us in need of our racing fix.
The quality of the horses was fairly humdrum, but some of the top jockeys were due to ride, including the underrated champion jockey for 2015, Sylvestre de Sousa. Pele and Ayrton Senna might have been more well-known, but de Sousa is now my favourite Brazilian sportsman.
Unfortunately whilst he made it back from Rio to the UK, he and quite a few of the other jockeys had not bargained for the M25 traffic. Roadworks and an accident in the contra flow meant they were late for the first race, causing confusing last minute jockey changes and some horses to be withdrawn altogether.
Ed Quigley, 'Longshot' in the Racing Post, had tipped up Palace Moon in the first. He (the horse, not the tipster) is 11 years old (veteran plus stage) and had not won for 3 years. Delving a long way back into his form it was just about possible to see where Ed was coming from so I invested a small amount to place on the Tote. Palace Moon duly won at 20/1, paying a win dividend of £28.60. The place dividend felt like a loss in the circumstances, especially as the smiling Tote lady said "Well done but bet you wish you'd had it to win" as she handed over my £62 (as opposed to £286). I grinned grimaced and agreed nicely.
The next race was a claimer, where the weight the horse carries is determined by how much the owner/trainer is prepared to allow the horse to be bought for. Obviously the theory is that no owner will put his horse in at a price which undervalues him. There is though an unwritten rule which considers it slightly not the done thing to claim another trainer's horse (especially an older one to whom connections might have grown attached). Personally I think this is a load of nonsense, and was therefore pleased to see old Majestic Myles claimed for £7k by a Mr L.A. Carter.
Silvestre de Sousa made it in time for the 4th race, but the rushing cannot have helped as he rode the 13/8 favourite trained by Mark 'Always Trying' Johnston into only 3rd place.
Still he must have been ready for the fascinating 5 furlong sprint which followed. There were just 4 horses but on form they seemed very closely matched. The betting bore this out with all of them at one time priced between 5/2 and 7/2. My logic suggested that jockeyship could be the crucial factor. There was the champion jockey up against Adam Kirby (a specialist round the Lingfield bends) and two young women jockeys, Josephine Gordon and Hollie Doyle. That whittled it down by two, with me just favouring Furiant ridden by de Sousa over Illegally Blonde and the course expert Kirby.
I got that bit right, only to see Hollie Doyle on Aguerooo,
come with a perfectly timed run to win going away. The starting prices, 6/4 favourite for Furiant against 15/8 for Aguerooo, suggested I was not the only one who had been undone by a borderline sexist approach to punting.
In the winner's enclosure Hollie Doyle was tiny compared to the horse, but the owners and the trainer, Richard Hannon, obviously had faith in her. She rode an excellent race and I will not be underestimating her again.
My nap of the day, Hot Stuff, came second again, in the (un)lucky last. I will be going in again next time he runs as he keeps finding one too good, but I fear he might be my latest cliff* horse.
Obviously all racing at the moment is dominated by endless debate about next week's Cheltenham festival. The declarations for the Champion Hurdle came out during the meeting and I just had to note that Lil Rockerfeller - winning of the National Spirit at Fontwell last month- had been supplemented. The owners, including bookie Andy Smith, had paid £20k to supplement him, and will only cover their costs if their horse comes in the first 4. I have availed myself at 40/1 in the hope that Lil will emulate Beech Road.
Oh and Expect Nothing is running in A3 grade tonight at Hove. Hattie**, as she is known in the kennel, is running well at the moment but another win will be a surprise ...... but you never know. Owning a greyhound, there really is nothing better.

*As in 'follow off a'
**Named after the former Deputy Leader of Labour Party obviously 


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